Our two Week 6 leans are the 49ers -7.5 against Washington and the Cowboys +1.5 at Green Bay, and both come from one plain idea: ESPN’s power ratings disagree with the DraftKings spread by at least 2 points. This page lists every NFL Week 6 game (October 15 to 19, 2026) with spread, total and moneyline, shows what moved since Monday, and says honestly which games we lean toward and why. A lean is analysis, not a promise that a bet wins.
The Quick Version
- Biggest favorite: the Rams, -12.5 at home against the Cardinals. Six games have a spread of 2.5 points or less.
- Biggest move this week: Panthers-Eagles. Philadelphia opened the week as a 1.5-point favorite. After the Eagles ruled out QB Jalen Hurts, Carolina is a 3.5-point favorite. That is a 5-point swing.
- Our leans: 49ers -7.5 (gap of 3.7 points to ESPN’s model) and Cowboys +1.5 (gap of 2.1). Both are small leans, not locks.
- No total leans. We have no independent total projection, so we skip totals instead of guessing.
- Track record: tracking starts October 15, 2026. There is no past record to show, so we do not show one.
What Are the NFL Week 6 Lines?
Here is every Week 6 game. The source is ESPN, which lists DraftKings odds. We copied the spread, total and moneyline as published at 2:15 p.m. ET on October 15, 2026. A spread of -2.5 means that team must win by 3 or more. A moneyline is a bet on who wins outright, with no points. The Bengals, Lions, Dolphins and Vikings are on a bye, per ESPN.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) and TV | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | Thu 8:15 PM, Prime Video | Seahawks -2.5 | 40.5 | Seahawks -142 / Broncos +120 |
| Texans at Jaguars | Sun 9:30 AM, NFL Net | Jaguars -2.5 | 42.5 | Texans +120 / Jaguars -142 |
| Bears at Falcons | Sun 1 PM, Fox | Bears -1.5 | 51.5 | Bears -115 / Falcons -105 |
| Titans at Colts | Sun 1 PM, Fox | Colts -7 | 44.5 | Titans +270 / Colts -340 |
| Panthers at Eagles | Sun 1 PM, CBS | Panthers -3.5 | 38.5 | Panthers -180 / Eagles +150 |
| Jets at Patriots | Sun 1 PM, CBS | Patriots -7.5 | 43.5 | Jets +260 / Patriots -325 |
| Ravens at Browns | Sun 1 PM, Fox | Ravens -4.5 | 41.5 | Ravens -218 / Browns +180 |
| Saints at Giants | Sun 1 PM, Fox | Saints -1.5 | 45.5 | Saints -112 / Giants -108 |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | Sun 1 PM, CBS | Steelers -2.5 | 39.5 | Steelers -148 / Buccaneers +124 |
| Cardinals at Rams | Sun 4:05 PM, Fox | Rams -12.5 | 51.5 | Cardinals +600 / Rams -900 |
| Bills at Raiders | Sun 4:25 PM, CBS | Bills -5.5 | 53.5 | Bills -250 / Raiders +205 |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Sun 4:25 PM, CBS | Chiefs -8.5 | 42.5 | Chargers +370 / Chiefs -485 |
| Cowboys at Packers | Sun 8:20 PM, NBC | Packers -1.5 | 53.5 | Cowboys +100 / Packers -120 |
| Commanders at 49ers | Mon 8:15 PM, ESPN, ABC | 49ers -7.5 | 51.5 | Commanders +330 / 49ers -425 |
All times are Eastern. The Texans-Jaguars game is played in London. Kickoff times and TV channels come from ESPN’s page and can change.
What Moved Since Monday?
The table below compares those numbers with the early lines CBS Sports published on October 12, also from DraftKings. A positive move means the team that is favored now gained points. The chart shows the same thing.
| Game | Oct. 12 spread | Oct. 15 spread | Total (Oct. 12 to Oct. 15) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos | Seahawks -3 | Seahawks -2.5 | 42.5 to 40.5 |
| Texans at Jaguars | Jaguars -3 | Jaguars -2.5 | 43.5 to 42.5 |
| Bears at Falcons | Falcons -1.5 | Bears -1.5 | 47.5 to 51.5 |
| Titans at Colts | Colts -7 | Colts -7 | 44.5 to 44.5 |
| Panthers at Eagles | Eagles -1.5 | Panthers -3.5 | 42.5 to 38.5 |
| Jets at Patriots | Patriots -7 | Patriots -7.5 | 44.5 to 43.5 |
| Ravens at Browns | Ravens -3.5 | Ravens -4.5 | 40.5 to 41.5 |
| Saints at Giants | Giants -1.5 | Saints -1.5 | 45.5 to 45.5 |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | Steelers -3 | Steelers -2.5 | 40.5 to 39.5 |
| Cardinals at Rams | Rams -12.5 | Rams -12.5 | 52.5 to 51.5 |
| Bills at Raiders | Bills -6 | Bills -5.5 | 53.5 to 53.5 |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs -8.5 | Chiefs -8.5 | 43.5 to 42.5 |
| Cowboys at Packers | Packers -1.5 | Packers -1.5 | 52.5 to 53.5 |
| Commanders at 49ers | 49ers -7.5 | 49ers -7.5 | 50.5 to 51.5 |
Four moves matter. We can source the first and partly the second and third. The fourth we cannot explain.
- Panthers at Eagles (spread moved 5 points toward Carolina, total fell from 42.5 to 38.5). The Philadelphia Inquirer reported on October 15 that the Eagles were 1.5-point favorites at the start of the week, then became 3.5-point home underdogs at both FanDuel and DraftKings after Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a superficial blood clot in his calf. Tanner McKee is expected to start.
- Bears at Falcons (moved 3 points toward Chicago, total rose from 47.5 to 51.5). The Falcons were 1.5-point favorites on Monday and the Bears are 1.5-point favorites now. CBS flagged Caleb Williams’ status as a swing factor on October 12, and Yahoo Sports reported on October 15 that Williams (hamstring) practiced in full Wednesday and has a chance to return, while Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. is still expected to start despite a rib injury. We read the move as the market pricing in Williams. That is our inference, and neither report ties the move to him.
- Ravens at Browns (moved 1 point toward Baltimore). Yahoo Sports reported that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury, and quoted ESPN’s Adam Schefter saying Jackson has a “realistic chance” of playing. The line could move again when his status is clear.
- Saints at Giants (moved 3 points toward New Orleans). The Giants were 1.5-point favorites on Monday and the Saints are 1.5-point favorites now. We did not find a sourced reason, so we do not offer one.
Where Does ESPN’s Model Disagree With the Spread?
ESPN publishes a Football Power Index (FPI), its own team-rating model. For each game, ESPN lists the FPI favorite, the margin it projects, and a win probability. That gives us a second opinion to compare against the betting line. It is one model. It is not proof of an edge.
The formula is: gap = FPI margin for the favored team – the spread. A positive gap means FPI likes the favorite more than the spread does. A negative gap means FPI likes the underdog more. For the 49ers, ESPN’s FPI has San Francisco winning by 11.2 and the spread is -7.5, so the gap is 11.2 – 7.5 = +3.7 toward the 49ers. For Cowboys-Packers, the spread makes Green Bay the favorite by 1.5, but FPI has Dallas winning by 0.6. That is -0.6 – 1.5 = -2.1 toward the Cowboys.
| Game | Spread | ESPN FPI | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders at 49ers | 49ers -7.5 | 49ers by 11.2 (86% to win) | 3.7 toward 49ers |
| Panthers at Eagles | Panthers -3.5 | Panthers by 0.2 (50% to win) | 3.3 toward Eagles |
| Cowboys at Packers | Packers -1.5 | Cowboys by 0.6 (52% to win) | 2.1 toward Cowboys |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs -8.5 | Chiefs by 6.6 (74% to win) | 1.9 toward Chargers |
| Seahawks at Broncos | Seahawks -2.5 | Seahawks by 0.7 (53% to win) | 1.8 toward Broncos |
| Bears at Falcons | Bears -1.5 | Bears by 2.8 (60% to win) | 1.3 toward Bears |
| Titans at Colts | Colts -7 | Colts by 6.1 (72% to win) | 0.9 toward Titans |
| Jets at Patriots | Patriots -7.5 | Patriots by 8.3 (80% to win) | 0.8 toward Patriots |
| Cardinals at Rams | Rams -12.5 | Rams by 11.9 (87% to win) | 0.6 toward Cardinals |
| Saints at Giants | Saints -1.5 | Saints by 1 (54% to win) | 0.5 toward Giants |
| Bills at Raiders | Bills -5.5 | Bills by 6 (72% to win) | 0.5 toward Bills |
| Texans at Jaguars | Jaguars -2.5 | Jaguars by 2.2 (59% to win) | 0.3 toward Texans |
| Ravens at Browns | Ravens -4.5 | Ravens by 4.3 (66% to win) | 0.2 toward Browns |
| Steelers at Buccaneers | Steelers -2.5 | Steelers by 2.6 (60% to win) | 0.1 toward Steelers |
What Are Our NFL Week 6 Leans?
We use a written rule so a lean is not a hunch. A game gets a lean only if all three are true:
- The spread and ESPN’s FPI disagree by at least 2.0 points.
- None of the sources we checked on October 15 flags a starting-quarterback question for either team.
- The disagreement points to a side we can explain with numbers we can show.
Three games clear the 2.0 bar: Commanders-49ers (3.7), Panthers-Eagles (3.3) and Cowboys-Packers (2.1). Panthers-Eagles fails the second test. Hurts was ruled out hours before we wrote this, and we cannot tell whether FPI had already priced that in. A model gap that may just be stale news is the one we trust least, so no lean there.
49ers -7.5 against the Commanders (Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET)
ESPN’s FPI projects San Francisco by 11.2 points with an 86% chance to win. The DraftKings spread is 7.5, so the 49ers must win by 8 or more to cover. The moneyline tells the same story. At -425, San Francisco’s implied chance is 425 / (425 + 100) = 81.0%. Washington at +330 is 100 / (330 + 100) = 23.3%. Those add up to 104.2%, and the extra 4.2% is the sportsbook’s fee. Remove it and the market says San Francisco 81.0 / 104.2 = 77.7%. ESPN’s model says 86%. That is a gap of about 8 percentage points.
What would change our mind: a quarterback injury, or the spread climbing past -9.2. At -9.2 the gap is 11.2 – 9.2 = 2.0 and the lean is gone. The 7.5 sits just past 7, the most common NFL margin after 3, so a 7-point win is not enough to cover. Our key numbers guide explains why.
Cowboys +1.5 at the Packers (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET)
This is the thinner lean. ESPN’s FPI has Dallas as the slight favorite, 52% to win. The market has Green Bay by 1.5. On the moneyline, Dallas at +100 is 100 / 200 = 50.0% and Green Bay at -120 is 120 / 220 = 54.5%. The total is 104.5%, so Dallas without the fee is 50.0 / 104.5 = 47.8%. ESPN’s 52% is about 4 points higher.
The case against: ESPN’s early-bets column noted that Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24-16 in Week 5 with a rookie quarterback, and CBS Sports described Green Bay’s Week 5 win over Chicago as dominant. The market may be reacting to both results. If the spread shrinks to Packers -1, the gap falls to 1.6 and the lean is gone. A spread of 1.5 does not sit on a key number, so a half-point of price matters less here than on a 3 or a 7.
Our take: both leans are modest. The 49ers lean has the bigger gap and the cleaner reasoning. The Cowboys lean is the kind of play where the best outcome is a small edge and a normal result is a loss. Neither lean is a bet we would size up. If you disagree with ESPN’s model, you should disagree with us too.
Games We Looked At and Skipped
| Game | Gap | Why no lean |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Eagles | 3.3 toward Eagles | Hurts was ruled out Oct. 15. We cannot tell if FPI had priced that in. |
| Chargers at Chiefs | 1.9 toward Chargers | Under the 2.0 bar. |
| Seahawks at Broncos | 1.8 toward Broncos | Under the 2.0 bar. |
| Ravens at Browns | 0.2 toward Browns | Tiny gap, and Lamar Jackson’s status is unresolved. |
| Bears at Falcons | 1.3 toward Bears | Under the 2.0 bar, and QB status was flagged for both teams. |
We also give no lean on any total. ESPN’s page does not list a projected total, and we will not make one up. The line-move table above is the information we have on totals.
What Is Our Results and Track Record?
Tracking starts October 15, 2026. Before that date these pages have no published record, so none is shown. Once games finish, each lean goes into this table with the line we showed when we posted it, and its result: win, loss or push. Nothing has been graded yet.
| Week | Game | Lean | Line when posted | Final score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | No graded leans yet | — | — | — | — |
Where Do the Daily NFL Picks Go?
This page is a weekly board, not a daily feed. Daily picks and line alerts go to our Telegram channel and our social accounts on X and Facebook. We do not publish a new page for each day’s picks. For the season-long market, see NFL futures and Super Bowl odds.
How Should You Use These Lines?
Treat the numbers here as a snapshot, then do three checks before you bet. First, read the price next to the number. Our guide to NFL spreads and totals shows why -110 needs a 52.4% win rate to break even. Second, shop another book. A half point on a key number is worth real money. Third, track whether you beat the closing line, which our closing line value guide explains.
The lines above are DraftKings numbers. Offshore sportsbooks such as BetOnline and Bovada post their own NFL boards, and their spreads and prices can differ from DraftKings. Offshore books are not licensed by U.S. state regulators, so read their terms, limits and payout rules before you deposit. Bet only money you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
Affiliate disclosure: DWZ may earn a commission if you sign up through these links, at no cost to you. This does not change our analysis.
How Do We Update This Page?
This is one permanent page. We replace the lines, the movement table and the leans in place instead of publishing a new page for each week. The “Last updated” date at the top tells you when the numbers were copied. If that date is old, treat the lines as stale. Past leans will be kept in the results table above.
References
- ESPN. “NFL Week 6 betting: Odds, lines and totals for every game.” Oct. 15, 2026, 2:15 p.m. ET. Odds by DraftKings. Checked October 15, 2026.
- Tyler Sullivan. “NFL Week 6 early odds: Eagles favored despite massive disadvantage, Packers-Cowboys line flips.” CBS Sports. Oct. 12, 2026. Checked October 15, 2026.
- Ariel Simpson. “Eagles go from favorites to underdogs vs. Panthers after Jalen Hurts injury news.” The Philadelphia Inquirer. Oct. 15, 2026. Checked October 15, 2026.
- Yahoo Sports Staff. “NFL news, live updates: Jalen Hurts out in Week 6.” Yahoo Sports. Updated Oct. 15, 2026. Checked October 15, 2026.
- ESPN. “Early bets for NFL Week 6.” Oct. 12, 2026. Checked October 15, 2026.
