The San Francisco 49ers are the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI at +680 at DraftKings, with the Rams right behind at +700, according to ESPN on October 14, 2026. Every ticket on the board also carries a built-in cost of about 18%, and that cost is the first thing to understand before you bet a futures market. This page shows the current board from a named source, how the odds turn into probabilities, and how to calculate the fee yourself.
The Quick Version
- Favorites: 49ers +680 (ESPN, Oct. 14), Rams +700, Bills and Ravens +800, Chiefs +950, Seahawks +1100, Jaguars +1200 (Sports Illustrated, Oct. 13).
- The fee: the 32 team prices add up to 121.8%, not 100%. The 21.8 extra points are the sportsbook’s margin, about 17.9% of the total. A $100 ticket on any team costs about $17.90 in expected value if the fee is spread evenly.
- Biggest movers since preseason: the Rams went from +500 to +700, Jacksonville from +3000 to +1200, Minnesota from +5000 to +2000, and the Chargers from +1700 to +20000 (ESPN, Oct. 14).
- Our take: we are not recommending a futures ticket here. If you want one, size it small, write down the reason, and shop for the best price.
Who Are the Super Bowl LXI Favorites Right Now?
Five teams are shorter than 10-to-1, according to Sports Illustrated: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Buffalo, Baltimore and Kansas City. ESPN reported a day later that the 49ers had moved to +680 and now lead the Rams (+700). The table below uses Sports Illustrated’s full 32-team DraftKings board from October 13, because it is the only board we found with every team. “Profit on $100” is the winnings if the team wins the Super Bowl. “Implied chance” is 100 / (odds + 100).
| Team | Odds | Profit on $100 | Implied chance | Chance with fee removed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +700 | $700 | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +700 | $700 | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | +800 | $800 | 11.1% | 9.1% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +800 | $800 | 11.1% | 9.1% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +950 | $950 | 9.5% | 7.8% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1100 | $1,100 | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1200 | $1,200 | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1900 | $1,900 | 5.0% | 4.1% |
| New England Patriots | +2000 | $2,000 | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +2000 | $2,000 | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Denver Broncos | +2000 | $2,000 | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Chicago Bears | +2000 | $2,000 | 4.8% | 3.9% |
The “chance with fee removed” column divides each implied chance by the board total of 121.8%. We explain why below.
Why do the prices differ from site to site?
The same team can carry different prices on different sites and at different times. Here are three snapshots from the same week:
| Snapshot | 49ers | Rams | Where it came from |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 13, 11:13 a.m. ET, consensus of several U.S. apps | +750 | +696 | Sports Betting Dime |
| Oct. 13, DraftKings | +700 | +700 | Sports Illustrated |
| Oct. 14, DraftKings | +680 | +700 | ESPN |
A move from +750 to +680 changes the implied chance from 100 / 850 = 11.8% to 100 / 780 = 12.8%. That is a full percentage point in two days. It is also why shopping price matters more in futures than in most bets, since a ticket is locked in for months.
What Has Changed Since the Preseason?
ESPN tracked the biggest swings on October 14. The Rams were the favorites all season and began at +500. They are now +700 after a 2-3 start, including an overtime loss to Buffalo on Monday night. San Francisco is 5-0. Here are the moves ESPN listed:
| Team | Preseason | Oct. 14 | What ESPN said |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +500 | +700 | Fell from favorite after a 2-3 start |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3000 | +1200 | Kept gaining ground |
| Minnesota Vikings | +5000 | +2000 | Undefeated, tied with three other teams at 20-1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1700 | +20000 | Fell to 200-1 after an 0-5 start |
ESPN also reported that Kansas City lengthened from +900 to +950 during its bye week and Seattle fell from +950 to 11-1 after a close loss to San Francisco.
How Do Futures Odds Turn Into Probabilities, and What Is the Hold?
Start with the formula for plus-money odds: implied chance = 100 / (odds + 100). For +700, that is 100 / 800 = 12.5%. For +2000 it is 100 / 2100 = 4.8%. If the odds were fair, all 32 chances would add up to exactly 100%, because exactly one team wins.
They do not. Here is the arithmetic for the DraftKings board Sports Illustrated published on October 13, 2026:
- Add all 32 implied chances. The total is 121.8%.
- The extra 21.8 points are the sportsbook’s margin, often called the overround.
- The hold is the share of the total that is margin: 21.8 / 121.8 = 17.9%.
- Remove the fee by dividing each team’s chance by the total. The 49ers go from 12.5% to 12.5 / 121.8 = 10.3%.
Now compare that with a normal point-spread bet. A -110 / -110 spread has implied chances of 52.4% on each side, which add up to 104.8%. The hold is 4.8 / 104.8 = 4.5%. The Super Bowl board’s hold is about four times larger. That is the plain reason futures are a poor fit for a bankroll you want to protect.
Here is the cost in dollars. Suppose the fee-free chance for the 49ers is 10.3%. A $100 ticket at +700 pays $700 profit if it wins and loses $100 if it does not. The expected result is 0.103 x $700 – 0.897 x $100 = $72.10 – $89.70 = -$17.60. Using unrounded numbers it works out to about -$17.90, which matches the hold. This assumes the fee is spread evenly across teams. That is a simplification, because books often charge more on longshots, but we have not verified that for this board.
Our guide to NFL futures bets covers the basics of how a futures ticket works.
What Do the Conference and Award Markets Say?
Bleacher Nation listed DraftKings conference prices on October 13. In the NFC: San Francisco +235, the Rams +405, Seattle +610, Minnesota +670 and Chicago +1325. In the AFC: Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City were all +420, Jacksonville +470 and New England +680. San Francisco was -260 to win the NFC West.
ESPN’s awards tracker (October 13, DraftKings) listed these leaders:
| Award | Leaders and odds |
|---|---|
| MVP | Josh Allen +250, Brock Purdy +300, Patrick Mahomes +650, Drake Maye +1700 |
| Offensive Player of the Year | Jahmyr Gibbs +280, Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III +400 |
| Defensive Player of the Year | Will Anderson Jr. +125 |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year | Denzel Boston +175, Jeremiyah Love +225, Carnell Tate +500 |
| Comeback Player of the Year | Patrick Mahomes -300 |
Implied chance for a minus price works differently: 300 / (300 + 100) = 75.0% for Mahomes at -300. Award markets are decided by voters, not by games, so stories and totals matter more than film. That makes them harder to price and easier to misread.
What Did Our September Futures Guide Say?
In September we published a Super Bowl 2027 predictions and awards guide with prices as of September 10. It put the Rams at about +500 (roughly a 17% chance), Seattle near +950, Buffalo near +1000, Kansas City near +1100, Detroit near +1400 and Philadelphia near +1600. Its advice was to keep any favorite ticket small and treat longshots as a minor side bet. This page replaces that guide’s price table. Here is how those September numbers have aged against the October 13 board:
| Team | Sept. 10 (our guide) | Oct. 13 (Sports Illustrated) | Implied chance, then to now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | +500 | +700 | 16.7% to 12.5% |
| Seahawks | +950 | +1100 | 9.5% to 8.3% |
| Bills | +1000 | +800 | 9.1% to 11.1% |
| Chiefs | +1100 | +950 | 8.3% to 9.5% |
| Lions | +1400 | +2600 | 6.7% to 3.7% |
| Eagles | +1600 | +4000 | 5.9% to 2.4% |
Detroit and Philadelphia are the clearest losers on that list. Both are NFC teams, and the September guide had warned that the NFC was crowded at the top. The percentages in our September table were rounded estimates, and the two boards come from different sources, so read the comparison as direction, not precision.
What Is Our Take on NFL Futures Right Now?
Our take: we are not recommending a Super Bowl ticket today. At 121.8% the board is expensive, and the two favorites sit at only +680 and +700 after a rough month for the Rams. Sports Illustrated ran a column on October 13 in which the writer said he would stay away from the Rams at the current price, pointing to their losses to other contenders. That is one writer’s opinion, not a fact, but it fits our caution.
If you still want a futures ticket, three habits help. Pick a team for a reason you can write in one sentence. Compare at least two books, since a 70-point price gap on the same team is real money over a season. And keep the stake small enough that losing it does not change your week. Our bankroll management guide covers stake sizing, and our closing line value guide shows how to judge a price over time. For this week’s games, see NFL betting picks and lines this week.
Where Can You Bet NFL Futures?
U.S. states with legal sportsbooks post Super Bowl futures. Offshore sportsbooks such as BetOnline and Bovada also list them, and their prices can differ from the DraftKings numbers above. Offshore books are not licensed by U.S. state regulators, so read their terms, limits and payout rules before you deposit. A futures ticket ties up your money until February, so confirm how and when the book pays. Bet only money you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-MY-RESET.
Affiliate disclosure: DWZ may earn a commission if you sign up through these links, at no cost to you. This does not change our analysis.
How Do We Update This Page?
This is one permanent page for NFL futures and Super Bowl odds. We replace the board and the movement tables in place instead of publishing a new page each time. The “Last updated” date at the top shows when the odds were copied. If that date is old, treat every price as stale.
References
- Sports Illustrated. “49ers Jump to Favorite; Bills Rising After Upset Win vs. Rams in Week 5.” Oct. 13, 2026. Odds via DraftKings. Checked October 15, 2026.
- Doug Greenberg. “Super Bowl LXI odds: All 32 teams’ odds to win the championship.” ESPN. Oct. 14, 2026. Odds by DraftKings. Checked October 15, 2026.
- Doug Greenberg. “2026 NFL awards tracker: Odds for MVP, Rookie of the Year and more.” ESPN. Oct. 13, 2026. Odds by DraftKings. Checked October 15, 2026.
- “Super Bowl LXI Odds: Rams, 49ers Lead After Week 5.” Bleacher Nation. Oct. 13, 2026. Checked October 15, 2026.
- “2026-27 Super Bowl Odds.” Sports Betting Dime. Updated Oct. 13, 2026, 11:13 a.m. ET. Checked October 15, 2026.
