Quick answer: We like the underdog in 12 of the 16 NFL Week 1 games in 2026. Our three favorite picks against the spread are Packers +1.5 at Minnesota, Panthers +3 at home to Chicago, and Broncos +2.5 at Kansas City. Lines shown are as of September 8, 2026, and they can move before kickoff.
The 2026 NFL season starts Wednesday, September 9. The defending champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl LX rematch. Then we get 15 more games over five days.
This is our full Week 1 card. Every game gets a pick against the spread and a short reason why. Read it, then shop for the best line before you bet.
Key Takeaways
- Week 1 is tight. Twelve of the 16 games opened at 3.5 points or less, so small edges matter a lot.
- Dogs have history on their side. Since 2000, Week 1 underdogs are 175-155-14 against the spread, about 53 percent.
- Our card leans underdog. We took 12 dogs and 4 favorites across the full slate.
- Biggest number of the week. The Chargers are laying 9.5 points to Arizona. Since 2000, Week 1 double-digit dogs are 12-7 against the spread.
- Highest total. Buccaneers at Bengals sits at 50.5. The lowest is Jets at Titans at 39.5.
- Mahomes is back. Patrick Mahomes returns from a torn ACL and LCL on Monday night against Denver.
Odds and totals in this article come from published Week 1 betting lines reported by FOX Sports and ESPN on September 7 and 8, 2026. Schedule details come from the official NFL and CBS Sports Week 1 schedules. Historical Week 1 records come from FOX Sports and Action Network trend data, and current team trends come from Covers.com. We did not place these bets or test any sportsbook. Every pick is our opinion based on the posted numbers.
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What is the full NFL Week 1 2026 schedule and spread?
Week 1 runs from Wednesday night through Monday night. Here is every game, the spread, and the total, as of September 8, 2026.
| Game | Day and time (ET) | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks | Wed, Sept 9, 8:20 p.m. | Seahawks -3.5 | 44.5 |
| 49ers vs Rams (Melbourne) | Thu, Sept 10, 8:35 p.m. | Rams -3.5 | 48.5 |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Bengals -3.5 | 50.5 |
| Saints at Lions | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Lions -6.5 | 49.5 |
| Jets at Titans | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Titans -1.5 | 39.5 |
| Ravens at Colts | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Ravens -3.5 | 47.5 |
| Falcons at Steelers | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Steelers -3.5 | 41.5 |
| Bears at Panthers | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Bears -3 | 47.5 |
| Browns at Jaguars | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Jaguars -8.5 | 40.5 |
| Bills at Texans | Sun, Sept 13, 1:00 p.m. | Bills -1.5 | 44.5 |
| Dolphins at Raiders | Sun, Sept 13, 4:25 p.m. | Raiders -3.5 | 40.5 |
| Packers at Vikings | Sun, Sept 13, 4:25 p.m. | Vikings -1.5 | 46.5 |
| Commanders at Eagles | Sun, Sept 13, 4:25 p.m. | Eagles -4.5 | 44.5 |
| Cardinals at Chargers | Sun, Sept 13, 4:25 p.m. | Chargers -9.5 | 47.5 |
| Cowboys at Giants | Sun, Sept 13, 8:20 p.m. | Cowboys -2.5 | 48.5 |
| Broncos at Chiefs | Mon, Sept 14, 8:15 p.m. | Chiefs -2.5 | 43.5 |
Twelve of these 16 spreads are 3.5 points or less. In a week this tight, half a point can decide your whole slate.
What does “against the spread” mean?
A spread bet is a bet on the margin, not the winner. The favorite has to win by more than the number. The underdog can lose by less than the number and still cash.
Take Chiefs -2.5 against Denver. Kansas City must win by 3 or more. Back Denver +2.5 and the Broncos can lose by 1 or 2 and you still cash.
New to this? Start with our guides on NFL betting odds explained and NFL moneyline, spread, and totals before you put money down.
Who wins the Wednesday and Thursday openers?
Patriots at Seahawks (Seahawks -3.5): Take New England +3.5
Seattle beat New England 29-13 to win Super Bowl LX. Now the Patriots get them again at Lumen Field. Revenge does not win games, but the market may be shading Seattle too far.
New England went 13-7-1 against the spread last season under Mike Vrabel. Seattle was only 8-11 against the spread at home under Mike Macdonald. ESPN’s FPI makes the Seahawks a 3.4-point favorite, which is less than the 3.5 you have to lay. We will take the points.
49ers vs Rams in Melbourne (Rams -3.5): Take San Francisco +3.5
This is the first NFL regular season game in Australia. It is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, so the Rams are the home team on paper only. Both clubs went 12-5 last season. Both lost to Seattle in the playoffs.
When two even teams meet at a neutral site, the spread should be near a pick. Getting 3.5 with a team this good is a gift. Take the 49ers and the hook.
What are the picks for the Sunday early games?
Buccaneers at Bengals (Bengals -3.5): Take Tampa Bay +3.5
This has the highest total on the board at 50.5. Both offenses can score in bunches, and neither defense scares anyone. FPI makes Cincinnati a 3.2-point favorite, a touch under the posted 3.5.
In a shootout, the dog usually stays close. Take the points with Tampa Bay.
Saints at Lions (Lions -6.5): Take Detroit -6.5
This is one of our four favorite plays on the card. Detroit is the biggest home favorite in the early window. FPI has the Lions by 6.8, just above the number.
The Lions are -290 on the moneyline, which is a 74 percent implied chance to win. New Orleans is the weakest team on this slate. Lay the points indoors.
Jets at Titans (Titans -1.5): Take Tennessee -1.5
The total here is 39.5, the lowest of the week. That tells you what the market thinks of both offenses. This should be ugly and close.
In a low-scoring game, home field matters more, not less. FPI gives Tennessee a 2.1-point edge. Laying 1.5 at home is fine here.
Ravens at Colts (Ravens -3.5): Take Indianapolis +3.5
Baltimore is the name brand, and the public knows it. That is exactly why this line sits at 3.5. FPI only makes the Ravens a 2.4-point favorite.
That is more than a full point of value on the home dog. Three is the most common NFL margin, so getting 3.5 matters. Take the Colts.
Falcons at Steelers (Steelers -3.5): Take Pittsburgh -3.5
The total is 41.5, so this is a defense-first spot. Pittsburgh is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a home favorite. That is the kind of trend we will lean on in a low-total game.
Bears at Panthers (Bears -3): Take Carolina +3
This is one of our three best bets. Carolina is 11-2 against the spread in its last 13 games as a home underdog. That is a real, sustained pattern, not a one-week fluke.
FPI makes Chicago a 2.6-point favorite, under the posted 3. Getting a full field goal with a live home dog is the play. Grab +3 before it moves to +2.5.
Browns at Jaguars (Jaguars -8.5): Take Cleveland +8.5
Jacksonville is 5-1 against the spread in its last six home games as a favorite, so this is not a free square. But the total is only 40.5. It is hard to win by nine when the game is projected to be a slog.
Big Week 1 dogs also have history. Since 2003, Week 1 underdogs of eight or more points are 25-9 against the spread. Take the points and hope for a sloppy opener.
Bills at Texans (Bills -1.5): Take Houston +1.5
This is the best early-window matchup and it is basically a coin flip. FPI has Buffalo by only 1.1 points, and some books price Houston at even money.
Houston is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a home underdog. Take the free points at home.
What are the picks for the Sunday late and night games?
Dolphins at Raiders (Raiders -3.5): Take Miami +3.5
The total is 40.5, one of the lowest of the week. Low totals shrink margins, and 3.5 is a big number in a game like this.
FPI makes Las Vegas a 2.8-point favorite. That is nearly a full point of value on the dog. Take Miami.
Packers at Vikings (Vikings -1.5): Take Green Bay +1.5
This is our top play of the week. The market has Minnesota favored by 1.5. ESPN’s FPI has Green Bay favored by 1.8 and gives the Packers a 56.6 percent chance to win outright.
That is a rare, clean disagreement between the model and the number. When you can take points with the team a model actually prefers, you take them. Bet Green Bay +1.5.
FPI projects Green Bay to win by 1.8 points. The spread says Green Bay loses by 1.5. Add those together and you get a gap of about 3.3 points between the model and the market. On a card where 12 games are inside 3.5 points, a 3-point gap is the largest edge available.
Commanders at Eagles (Eagles -4.5): Take Philadelphia -4.5
This is the only mid-sized favorite we are laying on Sunday. FPI makes Philadelphia a 4.9-point favorite, slightly more than the posted 4.5.
Division games are usually tight, so this is not a comfortable spot. But the number and the model agree, and home field in Philadelphia is real. Lay it.
Cardinals at Chargers (Chargers -9.5): Take Arizona +9.5
The Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week. The moneyline is -550, which is an 85 percent implied win chance. That is a lot to ask in Week 1.
Since 2000, Week 1 double-digit underdogs are 12-7 against the spread, about 63 percent. They rarely win, but they cover often. We are not betting Arizona to win. We are betting the game stays inside nine and a half.
Cowboys at Giants (Cowboys -2.5): Take New York +2.5
Sunday night, NFC East, and a road favorite. That combination usually means public money on Dallas. FPI makes the Cowboys only a 2.0-point favorite.
Division home dogs in Week 1 have been strong for years. Action Network data shows Week 1 divisional home underdogs at 23-7 against the spread since 2010. Take the Giants and the points.
Who covers on Monday night?
Broncos at Chiefs (Chiefs -2.5): Take Denver +2.5
Patrick Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15 last season. He is cleared for this game. That is the headline, and it is also the risk.
Players coming off major knee surgery often need a few weeks to look like themselves. Denver is also 5-0 against the spread in its last five games as an underdog. The number is short enough that a slow start for Kansas City is all we need.
What are all 16 Week 1 picks in one place?
| Game | Our pick | Side |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks | Patriots +3.5 | Underdog |
| 49ers vs Rams | 49ers +3.5 | Underdog |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | Buccaneers +3.5 | Underdog |
| Saints at Lions | Lions -6.5 | Favorite |
| Jets at Titans | Titans -1.5 | Favorite |
| Ravens at Colts | Colts +3.5 | Underdog |
| Falcons at Steelers | Steelers -3.5 | Favorite |
| Bears at Panthers | Panthers +3 | Underdog |
| Browns at Jaguars | Browns +8.5 | Underdog |
| Bills at Texans | Texans +1.5 | Underdog |
| Dolphins at Raiders | Dolphins +3.5 | Underdog |
| Packers at Vikings | Packers +1.5 | Underdog |
| Commanders at Eagles | Eagles -4.5 | Favorite |
| Cardinals at Chargers | Cardinals +9.5 | Underdog |
| Cowboys at Giants | Giants +2.5 | Underdog |
| Broncos at Chiefs | Broncos +2.5 | Underdog |
That is 12 underdogs and 4 favorites. Our three best bets are Packers +1.5, Panthers +3, and Broncos +2.5.
Which Week 1 betting trends actually matter?
Most Week 1 trends are noise. A few have big enough samples to be worth a look. Here are the ones we used.
- Since 2000, Week 1 underdogs are 175-155-14 against the spread, about 53 percent.
- Since 2000, Week 1 double-digit underdogs are 12-7 against the spread but only 3-16 straight up.
- Since 2010, Week 1 divisional home underdogs are 23-7 against the spread.
- Since 2000, the under has hit in 181 of 344 Week 1 games, about 52.6 percent.
- Carolina is 11-2 against the spread in its last 13 games as a home underdog.
- Denver is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games as an underdog.
The pattern is clear. Week 1 favors dogs and unders, because teams are rusty and public money piles onto famous teams.
A trend is a starting point, not a reason to bet. Use it when it agrees with the matchup. Ignore it when it does not.
How do you bet Week 1 without getting burned?
Week 1 is the hardest week of the year to handicap. Nobody has current-season data. Preseason tape is mostly backups. Books know this, and so should you.
- Bet smaller than normal. Cut your usual unit size in half for the opening week.
- Pick your best three or four games. Do not bet all 16 just because we listed all 16.
- Shop every line. Half a point at 3 or 7 is worth real money.
- Check the injury report on game day. Week 1 statuses change late.
- Skip any game where you cannot explain your edge in one sentence.
Why line shopping matters most in Week 1
Twelve games on this card sit at 3.5 points or less. Three is the most common margin in NFL history. So the difference between +3 and +3.5 is huge.
Opening week lines move a lot, because books have less information than usual. Two accounts let you catch the better number. Three or four is better.
These are the sportsbooks we point readers to for Week 1 line shopping: BetOnline, Bovada, MyBookie, BetUS, and BetNow.
Want more on the math behind the numbers? Read our guides to NFL key numbers in betting and the best NFL betting strategies.
References
- NFL.com — 2026 Week 1 schedule
- CBS Sports — 2026 NFL schedule, Week 1 kickoff times
- FOX Sports — 2026 NFL odds Week 1: lines and spreads for all 16 games
- ESPN — NFL Week 1 betting: odds, lines and totals for every game
- Covers.com — NFL betting trends for Week 1
- FOX Sports — NFL odds Week 1: historical betting trends
- Sports Illustrated — Patriots vs. Seahawks odds, spread and trends
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the 2026 NFL season start?
The 2026 regular season starts Wednesday, September 9, 2026. The Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. It is a rematch of Super Bowl LX, which Seattle won 29-13.
What are the best NFL Week 1 bets in 2026?
Our three best bets are Packers +1.5 at Minnesota, Panthers +3 against Chicago, and Broncos +2.5 at Kansas City. All three are underdogs getting more points than a projection model says they should. Lines can move, so check the current number before betting.
Do underdogs really cover more often in NFL Week 1?
Historically, yes, but the edge is small. Since 2000, Week 1 underdogs are 175-155-14 against the spread, roughly 53 percent. That is better than the break-even rate of about 52.4 percent at standard -110 pricing, but it is not a guaranteed system.
Who is the biggest favorite in NFL Week 1 2026?
The Los Angeles Chargers are laying 9.5 points at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Their moneyline is around -550. That is the only spread on the board close to double digits.
Is Patrick Mahomes playing in Week 1?
He is expected to play. Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15 of last season and is reported ready for the Monday night game against Denver on September 14. Confirm his status on the final injury report before you bet.
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